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Ding Feng · View | Wang Xiaogang: how much money can be made in a year to stabilize the stock market Sansheng III?

Release time:
2017/03/01
To see performance, it is more important to look at the long term and experience a complete bull and bear cycle. This cycle is at least 10 years.
 
1. Is it 20% a year?
 
         What is the expected annual return of the stock market? Recently, I made a small survey with friends in WeChat: What is the expected annual rate of return (composite interest) if you invest in a 10-year cycle?
 
         The voting results are as follows:
 
Most of the people who participated in the voting were my classmates and customers. Of the 125 votes, 28% are expected to have an annual return of 20%, 15% for the year is 22%, and 25% for the year is 10% for a total of 60%. This shows that 60% expect the rate of return to be around 20% (up and down 5 points).
 
If you add 12% of the expected 10% return and 10% of the 30% return, people who expect an annual return of 10-30% account for 82%.
 
One of the data anomalies is that the annual 100% return expectation is 15% of the votes. Most people may think it wrong to think that it is 10 years of total yield, but I guess most voters may really expect to double every year.
 
        Different yields will have great differences in their total assets after 10 years, assuming an investment of 10,000 yuan and an annualized rate of return of 20%. After 10 years, the total assets will be 62,000 if the annual rate of return reaches 25.89%. In 10 years, there will be 100,000. If it is 100%, there will be 10.24 million in 10 years and 10,485 million in 20 years.
 
        This fully reflects the huge differences between the compound interest in different years and the differences between 10 years and 20 years.
 
        The reason why I did this research was to understand how much the product's profitability would satisfy most people.
 
        From the median of statistics, it should be about 20% to reach more than half of the satisfaction of a friend.
 
2. Is the 20% expected return rate reasonable for most people?
 
        The person who expects 20% of the annual rate of return accounts for 28%, plus 22% of the expectation of 15% is half, plus 62% of the people who choose 10% to return 12%. This means that if the annual rate of return reaches 20%, 60% of people will be satisfied.
 
        Do you think this expectation is reasonable?
 
        Personally, most people's expectations are still reasonable in general! Since it is a stock speculation, it is feared to rise or fall. There is no way to say that the yield rate of 10% a year is a bit difficult to say. How can we get more than 10%?
 
        This is why most people choose 20%. This expectation is also reasonable.
 
3. Will 20% be achieved in 2017?
 
        The average annual yield of domestic equity-based private equity in the past five years was about 14% (data from a total of 563 products in 5 years of good buying statistics). The annualized yield of my Dingfeng 8 in the past 5 years exceeded this. One level (see screenshot below for good buy data as of February 17, 2017) just meets the expectations of 60% of customers.
 
        Taking Dingfeng Phase 8 (established in October 2010 as of 6 and a half years ago) as an example, the annualized return rate since its establishment exceeds the average annual return rate of the above-mentioned 5-year domestic stock-style sunshine private equity, which can be accounted for in the past. But it really needs to be improved.
 
        Taking into account the overall neutral market environment in 2017, individuals are more likely to judge market volatility upwards. Therefore, I expect the first annual rate of return to continue to exceed the five-year average rate of return, and the hope is better than the average level of the past seven years or so.
 
        The second goal is to achieve a half-customer satisfaction rate of return. This data is the average of the past five years. Work hard!
 
4. How to achieve 15-20% in 2017?
 
        I have always enjoyed the highest scores in terms of high performance and growth. I believe that stocks that grow at about 50% or even higher in the future will have a reasonable P/E ratio of 30-40 times. However, early this year, the PE of these stocks fell to 20-fold or more. There should be more than 30% increase.
 
        At the same time, we are also optimistic about the low valuation of large blue-chip, price-earnings ratio is about 10 times, but the growth of some 20-30% of the leading industries in some segments, these stocks are good liquidity, valuation is cheap, is expected to about 20% annual increase Still very possible.
 
        After the commencement of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, some products (brokers are trustworthy, and trusts are not feasible) can invest in Hong Kong stocks. Half of the Hong Kong stocks are listed on the mainland, and some stocks have a price-to-earnings ratio of more than one billion yuan. I believe As mainland capital continues to flow into Hong Kong, the performance of these stocks may reach more than 50% in the coming year.
 
5. What if I earn 20%?
 
        In the past, I seldom booked a detailed absolute return target. After all, the market's ups and downs are hard to fix. More often are relative indicators: look at the market and see peers.
 
        But this year I would like to try to focus on the absolute return target. Even if this year's task is completed, we must pay more attention to Take Profit and risk. If it is achieved as soon as possible to ensure that the first, to prevent risk is the first, more money is the next thing.
 
        I remember that my target for early 2015 was 50% (when we judged the bull market). When we reached a 60% return in May, we saw a lot of peer colleagues doubled up and therefore did not want to take profit. As a result, the stocks suffered heavy losses in June. The return rate is only 45% but it is lower than 50%.
 
        Money is inexhaustible. It is important for the wise to know. Otherwise, you may not want it quickly.
6. Can 50%-100% a year?
 
        A CEIBS student who had bought my product asked me if your product yield can be higher. How can I earn 50% a year?
 
        When I investigate the expected rate of return, there are actually about 15% of my friends' expected return rate is 100%!
 
        My classmate is an entrepreneur and the company is going to go public. However, he rarely invests in stocks, so it is normal to ask such questions.
 
        People who are unfamiliar with the stock market are expecting higher prices. After all, everyone thinks that the stock market either makes big profits or suffers big losses.
 
        Let's take a look at the current annual return rate of the most publicly-funded NB funds in China.
 
        Currently ranked first in the cumulative return of the Chinese market a total of 17 times the selection, was established in August 2004, once the public elder brother Wang Yawei in charge of nearly 8 years, annualized return of 25.98%!
 
 
        The second largest in the cumulative ranking was Cathy Growth, which I was once in charge of the excellent and well-known old colleague Shao Jian of Cathay Securities 20 years ago. The total return was 11.5 times. It was established in 2003, with an annualized rate of 20.36%.
 
 
        Ranked No. 3 is 11 times the total return of Xingquan Trend, which was established in November 2005, annualized 22.61%.
 
 
        These three funds are the top three of the current best, rank first in the same category, have been established for more than 10 years, and have strong reference significance.
 
        We can see that the annualized period of more than 10 years has reached the 20-25% range, which is the income level of the top domestic equity funds.
 
        Peter Lynch, the most successful stock fund manager abroad, is my enlightening idol and is the person most affected by Wang Yawei mentioned in the book “Fund Evergreen” by the original Huaxia Fund General Manager Fan Yonghong—13 years from 1977 to 1990. The annual return is 29%. This performance record is currently no one has surpassed the domestic public fund.
 
Look at Buffett's historical performance again:
 
1. Youth (13 years: 1956-1969/partnership): 29.5% per year;
 
2. Middle Age (29 years: 1970-98/ Berkshire): 26.2% per year;
 
3. During the later years (15 years: 1999-2013/ Berkshire): average annual rate of 8.4%;
 
4. The entire period of Berkshire: (49 years: 1965-2013): average annual 19.70%
 
        As you can see, 20-30% of performance that lasts for more than 10 years is the top level of domestic and foreign funds.
 
        What these funds have done is not that annualized compound interest is higher than this 30% or more, but that the legend is in constant time. For instance, when Ba Shen spent a total of 42 years from 1956-1998, it is about 27%.
 
        But people are reluctant to look at history. People like to watch cows in the past year or the past three years. Such a short measurement cycle is more accidental. Maybe the market fits well with the style of a fund manager. Then he is very beefy. Now. In fact, more important is the long-term, it is a complete bull and bear cycle, this cycle is at least 10 years.
 
        My clients have new friends recommended by the old customers. These new friends may not understand the stock market and do not understand us. Therefore, I think it is very necessary for the customer who plans to purchase the product to emphasize our historical rate of return. I will be able to work hard in the future. I have to go up one more interval, but I guess it's basically impossible to achieve a compound return of more than 30%!
 
        The revolution has not been successful, I will continue to work hard!
 
 
 
Your fund manager Wang Xiaogang
 
2017/03/01