Ding Feng·View | White Horse shares abandoned? Ding Feng Lu Hongliang: The company still enjoys high premium quality
Original title: "The performance is less than the expected return of private equity in Baima shares optimistic about the adjusted subdivided plate."
Media Released: Securities Times
Author: Securities Times reporter Zhao Ting
Published: May 8
In the first four months of this year, the market interpreted the "nine phenomenon" to the extreme, with nearly a third of individual stocks falling more than 20%, but some white horse stocks and industry leaders have risen strongly. With the disclosure of a quarterly report of listed companies, some Baima stocks began to call back. "White Horse Quotes" died down or pause? According to a number of private equity experts interviewed by the reporter, the correction of the Baima shares was mainly affected by the unsatisfactory performance of the quarterly results, valuation pressures, and financial constraints. The market style will not shift to growth stocks. Baima stocks with real performance support still have configuration value after the correction.
White horse shares break
Last week, the brewing group fell collectively, and Hisense Electric was abandoned after the release of a quarterly report, and the opening limit was lowered. Some white horse stocks were affected and the stock price correction was obvious. An investment manager of Shanghai Yangge Investment believes that the main reason for the correction of the Baima stock is that the performance of the quarterly report is not as good as expected and the valuation has reached a short-term high. According to a quarterly report, Hisense Electric's revenue and net profit all decreased year-on-year, and its number of shareholders in the first quarter rose by 26%, indicating that institutional investors have fled.
Lv Hongliang, Director of Asset Research at Shanghai Ding Feng, believes that there are two factors driving the purchase of white horse stocks. One is the “long-term short-term” model, in which the rise in stocks does not depend on short-term positive factors but on long-term growth. Logic is similar to the "pretty 50" of the US stock market from 1970 to 1972. Second, due to regulatory pressure, funds fleeing from other sectors are looking for a place to go and huddle in heat to form a favorable enthusiasm for White Horse stocks, but this factor will be After the falsification of the performance disappeared.
The private equity investment manager stated that despite the fluctuations in the market, Baima shares and industry leaders only left profit in the short-term and could still expect performance after the intermission. “The “beautiful 50′′ of the United States lasted two years. A shares have been in place since May last year and now have a performance in the next year. The key lies in whether the big logic of long-term growth is recognized by the market. Lu Hongliang said.
Hong Guanyu, chairman of Hongxiang Investment, also believes that from the perspective of several major industries of the Baima Group, growth will still exist in the future, and some segments will still perform after the correction.
Regarding whether the market style is gradually switched from value stocks to growth stocks, several private equity firms have rejected the idea that small and medium-sized companies are still in the process of clearing their valuations, and the short-term market style is difficult to switch. Pseudo-growth stocks and sub-new stocks are unlikely to become mid-to-long-term trends even if they are rebounded. Companies without high-growth core competitiveness will not rise again.
Callback or performance differentiation
In the same white horse stocks, some stocks were abandoned by institutions, and some white horse stocks and industry leading stocks still hit new highs. From the perspective of the private equity investment manager, it is difficult for the White Horse stocks to rise further in the future and differentiation will occur. Lu Hongliang said that in the future, core competitiveness can bring about sustained growth in the company, and companies with high growth quality can still enjoy a premium.
The aforementioned Shanghai Yangge Investment Manager believes that if the performance of the Baima stocks is expected, it will be a halftime break and the follow-up will continue. If the performance does not reach expectations, it is necessary to wait until the verification of the interim report before judging whether the market continues. In his opinion, the industry in which it is growing has a rapid growth rate, and Baima stocks whose main business is stable, have stable growth and high profitability can continue to enjoy a “certain premium”.
For future performance, Li Guanyu divided the targets into three categories for analysis. The first is the architectural standard. The market expects these companies to have high performance at the beginning of the year and it will take some time to adjust. In the fourth quarter, there may be performance. The second is consumer companies, which can be subdivided into liquor, furniture, and household appliances. The growth rate of white spirits is not high, valuation is expensive, and space is small. Custom furniture is still a growth industry, leading to an ever-increasing share of the leading market. Appliances also have room for improvement. In addition to companies whose performance does not meet expectations, they will also recover in one to two quarters. Third, science and technology companies, the industry has about 20% growth rate, the future growth worth the wait.
“We have a relatively low allocation in the liquor sector, and we are mainly looking for leading companies in promising industries. In the second quarter, we will have a slightly larger share of the technology and home improvement industry,” said Li Guanyu.
For the market outlook configuration, the above-mentioned Shanghai Yingge Investment Manager also stated that it favors high-quality Baima stocks with better performance and lower valuation in the annual report or quarterly report. The short-term focus is on the consumer electronics market with a high probability of high boom. Apple's industrial chain and new energy vehicles are the first choices. Thematic areas are concerned with investment opportunities in Xiong'an New District and the Belt and Road Initiative.
Lu Hongliang said that the current positions are mainly focused on companies with continuous growth capacity, achieving an average annual growth rate of more than 20% in the next five years, and a company with a P/E ratio relative to earnings growth ratio of less than one.